Hi Mike,
Have you been "doing something" to ntp? That's the obvious question, to which I know you will answer "no" because I know you, kinda
I don't, however, know how much unix you have, so...
Is it running with suid root? Permission could mean you don't have permission to open the log file, place the lock file or open the binary. It could also mean you don't have permission to access that particular ntp server (or one of them: It's a pool).
Do you have port 123 blocked?
Is the ntp server(/s) down? (Hey, it's possible. May only take one)
Do they have (you|external access) blocked?
I would stop ntpd, install ntpdate and try setting the time directly from that server with "ntpdate north-america.pool.ntp.org". You'll have to stop ntpd as it locks port 123 for itself.
If it all works perfectly with ntpdate, restart the process and check the error log. If it doesn't, try another server.
(other) Mike